The cost of rice in Japan shows no signs of declining. Thanks to a poor crop last year, a 5kg bag now costs double what it cost a year ago. Why aren’t the Japanese government’s efforts to bring the price down working?
Third release from strategic reserves
The price of everything in Japan has been going up lately. However, several items, such as cabbage, have been hit especially hard thanks to last summer’s hot, dry weather.
The spiking cost of rice, though, hits close to home, as the grain is a staple of Japanese cuisine. When I previously wrote about the price increase in February 2025, rice was selling at my local supermarket for around 3,500 yen ($24) for a 5kg bag. Today, the average cost is 4,206 yen ($29).
In an effort to reduce prices, Japan’s government has executed two releases of rice from its strategic reserves. The bags are a blend of various rice strains and are specially marked in their own distinct bags. They cost around 3,600 to 3,700 yen for 5kg – a small but not substantial difference from market price.
However, to date, the releases have done nothing to stop the upward price trend. According to NHK, Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture officials say this is because the release has been small compared to market volume and that it’ll take time for price decreases to show up.
In response, Yomiuri Shimbun says the government is planning a third release from its reserves. However, some experts say they don’t expect to see a price drop until the next crop is released this fall.
“The amount of rice on the market is insufficient and, simultaneously, reserves are lower than ever, so it’ll be hard for prices to fall until the new crop comes out,” Orikasa Shunsuke of the Distribution Economics Institute of Japan said.
American blend rice is going on sale tomorrow
In the face of this stubbornness, one chain has come up with a clever workaround to relieve the burden.
Starting tomorrow, April 10th, Aeon Supermarkets will sell a special 4kg Japan/US rice blend bag. The product is called 二穂の匠 (nisui no takumi, the craftsmanship of two stalks). Available at 2,000 Aeon, Aeon Style, Daiei, and My Basket stores nationwide, it’ll consist of 80% US rice and 20% homegrown rice.
Aeon is touting that the blend will sell for 2,780 yen pre-tax. Given that it’s only a 4kg bag, that means it’s selling for 695 yen a kilogram. The average price currently is 841 yen a kilogram, meaning consumers will save 730 yen ($5) for every 5kg of rice – around 33% of the price differential between last year’s and this year’s prices.
Aeon’s plan – and Japan’s current supply of imported rice – also predates the new Trump tariffs, which would assess a 24% reciprocal tax on imported goods. The current rice imports are purchased under the World Trade Organization’s minimum access standards, which keep tariffs on goods up to a certain quantity low or minimal.
The tariff nonsense is certainly going to complicate Japan’s plans to alleviate its rice shortage. Rice consumption has already declined markedly thanks to the rising popularity of bread and pasta. Could this accelerate rice flight even further?
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