It’s been a wild two years in Japanese politics. After a decade of relative stability in the political scene, the field has been rocked by some major shake-ups.
The first unexpected jolt was the sudden surge of right-leaning and far-right parties, particularly the outsized showing by Sanseitō in the previous election. Japan’s rightward lurch, driven largely by its youth and the right-wing takeover of social media platform X, helped launch conservative Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) politician Takaichi Sanae into the Prime Minister’s seat, making her Japan’s first female PM.
The election of Takaichi led to another shockwave. Kōmeitō, the political arm of the Buddhist religious movement Sōka Gakkai, ended its 26-year alliance with the LDP. Kōmeitō’s ground support has widely been seen as critical to securing victories for LDP politicians in dozens of districts. That will leave the LDP scrambling for votes in Lower House elections to maintain its already shaky minority government.
Then came the new shoe-drop this week. After Takaichi announced she would disband the Lower House and call a snap election in February, Kōmeitō and the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP), the country’s largest opposition party, announced they would merge to form a new political entity.
Dubbed the Centrist Reform Alliance (中道改革連合; chūdō kaikaku rengō), the new party is still rolling out its combined public policy. In terms of national security, it’s likely to swing slightly conservative, adopting Kōmeitō’s push for a beefed-up Self Defense Force and stronger national security.
However, there’s a lot of room for agreement between the two parties as well. Both are socially liberal. For example, both support separate spousal surnames and a diverse society that embraces immigration. Kōmeitō has long championed social programs such as free school lunches. Indeed, one of the joint party’s earliest initiatives will be a push to eliminate the consumption tax on groceries, giving Japanese consumers some much-needed price relief.
For the time being, the CDP and Kōmeitō will only run as Centrist Reform in the House of Representatives. They will remain two separate parties under the Alliance.
The potential benefits – and pitfalls
What does all of this mean for Japanese politics?
The country will face a snap election next month. It’s a daring gambit by Takaichi to shore up her position. The last election before Takaichi became PM wiped out the LDP’s majority, forcing her to cobble together a government with help from the Innovation Party (Ishin no Kai). She called the new election after she failed to strike a broader agreement with Tamaki Yūichirō’s Democratic Party for the People (DPFP).
Dissolving the Lower House and calling a snap election was a favorite tactic of Takaichi’s mentor, Abe Shinzō. With each call, Abe managed to strengthen his party’s grip on power.
Centrist Reform’s announcement could doom Takaichi’s attempt to follow in her mentor’s footsteps. However, it could also fall off a sharp cliff.
