How Japan’s Press is Covering Trump’s Assault on Democracy

Trump Baby
Japan's right-wing goes all-in for Trump - but coverage in Japanese news slowly reflects the truth that Trump's act is all hat and no cattle.

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In the United States, Joe Biden’s win and Donald Trump’s defeat in the Presidential election is a settled issue. Unless, of course, you’re part of the Trump administration. Trump, his allies in the Republican party, and his rabid base of deplorables continue to allege that Trump is the true winner of the election.

There is, of course, no factual basis for these claims. All of the Trump administration’s lawsuits to date alleging voter fraud have been laughed out of courtrooms across the land. The lawsuits are so baseless that even his lawyers, who are afraid for their legal licenses if they lie before a judge, are confessing as much in open court.

That hasn’t stopped Japan’s far right-wing (bless their hearts) from stepping up to bat for Our First Orange President. Perhaps the most hilarious attempt was a Twitter storm earlier this week urging Japanese people to sign a very poorly worded WhiteHouse.gov petition demanding a “do-over” of the entire election. (As one Twitter wag put it, “What – so they can not vote for him a second time?”)

The petition was retweeted by the usual, predictable crowd of right-wing netouyo hacks in Japan, such as Takeuchi Kumiko. If you want a sense of the caliber of people we’re dealing with, Takeuchi’s claim to fame is an article claiming that liberal Japanese men have smaller than average testicles.

“That’s Why They’re Called Swing States”

Unfortunately, when the news of Biden’s win was still settling in, the mainstream Japanese press itself wasn’t doing much better.

In an article for Gendai Media, Hirakawa Eri does a great job laying out how election week in the US unfolded. He tells readers in particular about the “red mirage” (赤い蜃気楼; akai shinkirou) – the phenomenon of how some US states seemed to be trending Trump at first because of the order in which votes were tabulated. (Trump, in general, won more in-person votes than Biden – and some states, like Pennsylvania, couldn’t legally tabulate mail-in votes until Election Night.) He also digs into the complicated situation in Arizona, how it became a battleground states, and why organizations like AP and Fox called the state for Biden pretty quickly.

Hirakawa then lays into commentators in the Japanese press. Before Saturday November 7th, no major US news organization had called the race for either Biden or Trump. Trump attempted to take advantage of the confusion by declaring himself the winner – even though the results were slowly trending against him. But he lost that on the 7th, when Biden took enough votes in Pennsylvania to avoid an automatic recount in the state. Most major US organizations called the race for Biden the same day.

But some commentators, said Hirakawa, had spent all week talking about how Trump was “in the lead”. That’s why, these commentators argued, Trump had declared himself the winner early. Hirakawa blasts these commentators for not understanding the facts in front of them:

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テレビ局だけではない。何人かの現職の国会議員や大臣経験者すら、トランプ候補が優勢である、とツイートした。

しかし、少し考えればわかると思うが、もし仮に選挙で正当にトランプ大統領が勝利する見込みがあったなら、あのように馬鹿げた「勝利宣言」をするはずもない。つまりあの勝利宣言は、自身が負ける可能性が高いことを熟知した上でなされたものだった。

メディアは選挙前から、世論調査やデータも読まない多くのコメンテーターが、「隠れトランプ」という根拠不明の言説に乗っかってトランプ優勢を主張し続け、開票が進む中でも全く状況を理解しないまま、大統領の妄言に裏書きを与えたのではないか。

It wasn’t just TV stations. Many current Diet members and even people connected to the current Prime Minister tweeted about how Trump was winning.

But think about it. Suppose it actually did seem like he was going to win. If so, he wouldn’t have to make such an idiotic declaration. In other words, he proclaimed himself the victor because he was hyper-aware that he was highly likely to lose.

From before the election started, many commentators who can’t read data continued to insist, with no proof, on the “hidden Trump voter”, and backed his reckless remarks with no understanding the situation at all even as the votes were being opened.

Hirakawa further lays into commentators for remarking that “the polls were wrong, yet again.” He references Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight and how the site had been predicting, for months, that Trump stood a 30% chance of winning the election. Hirakawa then does something I’ve had to do in English on my own social media accounts repeatedly: he explains to these hapless commentators how statistics work.

打率3割のバッターが、ある打席においてたまたまヒットを打ったからと言って「このバッターは結果的にヒットを打てたのだから、打率という指標は意味がない」とはならない。なぜならそれは一度の打席を判断するものではなく、何回も繰り返した結果どの程度ヒットを打つ可能性があるかの確率を示しているに過ぎないからだ。

If a batter has a 30% average, you wouldn’t say just because he got a hit in an at-bat that “Since that batter scored a hit, batting average is a meaningless statistic.” That’s because the average isn’t a judgment of what how he’ll hit in a single at-bat, but merely a stat that shows how many hits he’s likely to get in a large number of at-bats.

Hirakawa points out that this is what made the election seem close during vote counting, even though the final result is a decisive victory for Biden. The pivotal swing states could have gone either way. And some – like Florida – indeed went for Trump. “That’s why,” Hirakawa says, “they’re called swing states [Japanese: 接戦州; sessenshuu].”

Hirakawa finishes his article by noting that, even now, there are many in Japan continuing to advance the narrative of a Trump victory, and amplifying false information about election fraud. He notes that the comments section of Yahoo! News articles on the US Election are filled with right-wingers buying Trump’s claim that the election is stolen.

This proliferation of false information, says Hirakawa, will continue to prove a challenge to both US and Japanese societies:

4年に渡る「トランプ・ショー」は終わったが、嘘と分断を持って人気を獲得しようとする政治家は、彼が最後ではないだろう。そして、日本にあっても米国にあっても、それを増幅するのか止めるのかの責任が、各社に問われているのである。

The four-year-long “Trump Show” is over, but we haven’t seen the last of politicians who use lies and division to make themselves famous. And the onus lies with [media] companies, both in Japan and the US, to stop the spread.

The Narrative Finally Turns Against Trump

Fortunately, such amateur commentary as cited by Hirakawa finally appears to be waning. As the US media’s coverage tilts against Trump, so does Japan’s.

In the US, mainstream media outlets aren’t buying into Trump’s attempts to steal the election. The New York Times recently did a front-page story documenting how representatives in battleground states all stated categorically that there was no election fraud. Even Fox News, which has staunchly backed Trump for four+ years, has hedged its bets. An anchor recently cut away as White House Press Secretary Kayleigh McEnany made claims of voter fraud. Anchor Neil Cavuto told viewers, “Unless she has more details to back that up, I can’t in good countenance continue to show you this.”

The debunking is even happening on the Japanese airwaves. On today’s episode of Sukkiri!, a popular morning news program on Japan’s NTV, the show devoted part of its US election segment to debunking claims of voter fraud – such as Donald Trump’s son Eric linking to a video that purportedly showed votes for Trump being burned. (The ballots in question were samples.)

Other media are also stepping up to the plate. Nikkei, Japan’s equivalent to the Wall Street Journal, has reported on US polls showing 80% of the American people believe Biden won the election. The liberal Mainichi Shinbun has been fact-checking the wild statements from the Trump camp, such as former NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani’s claim that Pennsylvania has been moved to the “undecided” column.

Hell, even the conservative Sankei Shinbun doesn’t have Soon-To-Be-Ex-President Trump’s back. In a recent op-ed, the paper laid into Trump’s baseless claims of voter fraud: “…the president himself should refrain from making wild statements and stirring up distrust. An escalation of confrontation could lead to unnecessary violence.”

While this is good to see, it’s a day late and a dollar short. As Hirakawa notes, the wanton spread of lies and false information – a treasured tactic of the Trump regime – represents a serious threat to democratic institutions of government. Everyone has a responsibility to help defeat it. And that responsibility is especially heavy for news organizations. All of us – whether in Japan or the US or elsewhere – need to demand that our media prioritize truth above milking an illusory horse race for ratings.

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