A new Prime Minister is taking power in Japan. The question is: Can Ishiba Shigeru stay in power now that he has it?
One way the new PM could gain such public support is by backing policies that are…well, actually popular. Two key issues with strong public support are separate spousal surnames and marriage equality. Where, exactly, does Ishiba stand on these pressing social issues?
The ascent of Ishiba
Ishiba Shigeru emerged from a crowded field of nine candidates to become the next president of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). That makes him the country’s next Prime Minister. He’ll replace outgoing PM Kishida Fumio, whose tenure has been marked by rock-bottom poll numbers and a general loss of support for the LDP.
Ishiba fended off an attack from his arch-rival, the notoriously sexist powerbroker Aso Taro, who backed hard-right candidate Takaichi Sanae. (A picture of Aso looking extremely bitter after the defeat went viral on X shortly after that. You love to see it.)
Since then, Ishiba has been enjoying a string of support on social media, not unlike the uptick of support that former PM Suga Yoshihide received after succeeding Abe Shinzo. Many have reveled in his idiosyncracies, such as being an avowed train otaku. A video his staff posted of them teaching him how to take a selfie went viral for giving off strong “my grandpa uses a smartphone for the first time” energy.
Will Ishiba support policies that are actually popular?
However, Ishiba’s popularity, like Suga’s, may be short-lived. (Suga lasted a little over a year in the position.)
Ishiba has dissolved the Diet, Japan’s national Parliament, forcing a snap election on October 27th. His party’s success in that election, and the details of his agenda, will detail how long he can hold public approval and keep the reigns of power.
Can he pull it off? That’s anyone’s guess. The LDP has seen its approval dip dramatically in the past year under Kishida. (As of this writing, Kishida sits at 20% approval and 60% disapproval.) It’s trending up in recent months – 31.3% now compared to 25% in May – but is still well below its highs of 35-40% a year ago.
However, those saying they no longer support the LDP aren’t flocking in large numbers to any of Japan’s opposition parties. Rather, they’re declaring themselves independent. Winning back seats in the Diet means winning those voters back.
Ishiba Shigeru supports separate spousal surnames
Speaking of popular policy initiatives, where does Ishiba stand on social issues popular with the public? Let’s look at his statements on two issues: separate spousal surnames and marriage equality.
In Japan currently, the law requires married Japanese nationals to have the same surname. (This law doesn’t apply to foreign residents.) Due to social norms, that means, in 95% or more of the cases, the wife takes her husband’s name.
Contrary to being some vaunted “ancient Japanese tradition,” joint spousal surnames is a Meiji era (late 19th century-early 20th century) creation originally based on European law. The European countries on which Japan based this regulation have all since repealed it. That forces some Japanese couples go to ridiculous lengths to bestow some measure of name equality into their marriages.
In recent polling by NHK, 62% said they favored separate spousal surnames. Only 27% oppose it. The head of Japan’s largest business association, the Keidanren, has also called to repeal the law, saying it hinders women’s advancement in the workplace.
Ishiba is firmly on record as saying he wants to repeal the joint surnames law and enable spouses to have their own last names. In doing so, he’s going against the right wing of his party, which has said that separate spousal surnames would hurt Japanese families by causing confusion among kids.
“There’s logic saying it’ll destroy the family, which I really don’t understand,” he told reporters on September 27th. “I really don’t see a reason not to do it.”
Marriage equality is popular – but the LDP hates it
Same-sex marriage equality has even more public support than separate spousal surnames. Even conservative publications in Japan show public support running at 70% or higher. Over 60% of LDP voters say they support same-sex marriage.
Additionally, “partnership systems” that bestow some level of marriage rights to couples at a local governmental level have grown quickly across Japan. There are now 459 local governments with such coverage, encompassing 85.1% of Japan’s population. 7,351 couples have entered into partnerships under these laws.
Despite this public support, the LDP’s right wing has fiercely resisted enshrining marriage equality as law. Many LDP politicians have shown their true colors over the years with derogatory comments against LGBTQ people.
In 2018, Japan saw demonstrations in several cities after LDP politician Sugita Mio wrote an article calling LGBTQ people “unproductive” members of society. Last year, PM Kishida fired his press secretary, Arai Masayoshi, after he told reporters, “I don’t want [LGBTQ people] living next to me either.” The LDP itself also allowed a conservative Shinto association to distribute anti-LGBTQ propaganda at a party conference.
Ishiba Shigeru on marriage equality
There were signs that Ishiba might buck this trend. Unfortunately, lately, he seems to have moved from “good” to “cagey.”
In an interview two weeks ago with TBS Radio host Ogiue Chiki, Ishiba referred to the lack of marriage equality as a “disadvantage” for same-sex couples and a problem that required “relief.” He agreed with Ogiue when the host asked him if that meant granting same-sex couples marriage rights.
However, last week, the Japan Alliance for LGBT Legislation and Marriage For All Japan sent out questionnaires to all nine LDP candidates asking them where they stand on marriage equality. Only two candidates – Kono Taro and Ishiba – even replied. Koizumi answered, but only to say that he didn’t want to answer.
In his reply about whether Japan would pass marriage equality, Ishiba didn’t choose “Approve” or “Oppose.” Instead, he chose “Other,” saying, “I want to deepen people’s understanding about the LGBT Understanding Bill and have more of a debate within the party.”
Kono, Japan’s Digital Minister, says he approves of marriage equality. That makes him one of the policy’s few vocal proponents in the LDP.
Ishiba picks an anti-LGBTQ bigot
In another worrying move, Ishiba recently appointed LDP politician Kiuchi Minoru as head of economic security in his administration.
Kiuchi has headed up the party’s special committee on LGBT issues. However, during one off-the-record conversation, he said LGBTQ issues and Ukraine were alike because only a “minority” supported them. He declared, “People who say that’s how the world’s trending are wrong.” (As discussed above, polls prove that Kiuchi is dead wrong on marriage equality.)
Kiuchi also invited members of the Unification Church who support conversion therapy to speak to the committee. The South Korean-based Christian-derived church, which is staunchly anti-LGBTQ, has spent years developing ties with LDP politicians in a bid to influence Japan’s social policy. The organization’s practices are so sketchy that the Japanese government officially moved to dissolve the Church in the wake of former PM Abe’s assassination.
What does all this add up to? On the plus side, separate spousal surnames sounds like it’ll be reality soon. On marriage equality, Ishiba seems poised to do exactly what Kishida did on marriage equality – i.e., call for more “debate” but never push any actual legislation.
Time will tell if public opinion forces him to sing a different tune.
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