Between rising prices and a weak yen, Japan’s economy has taken a lot of hits lately. Now, consumers are feeling an even harder pinch as rice – a staple of the Japanese diet – is disappearing from store shelves.
Some news reports are laying the blame for the shortage partially on foreign tourists. However, that notion doesn’t stand up to scrutiny.
Japan’s dwindling rice supply
Japan’s been no stranger to food shortages lately. The Ukraine War, the after-effects of the pandemic, and a number of other incidents have collaborated to put the squeeze on certain food items.
Last year, for example, a combination of bird flu and expensive feed led to an egg shortage – and sent prices soaring. As a result, stores limited egg sales, and some restaurants temporarily took items like pancakes off their menus.
However, the new shortage strikes even closer to the heart of the Japanese diet. Many Japan residents are going to their local supermarkets to find that there’s little rice to be had. Social media users are posting pics of bare shelves and of their struggles in securing the product.
I can see the own impact at the grocery store closest to my place in Tokyo. My local supermarket’s rice shelves used to carry 1kg, 5kg, and 10kg bags of rice. On a visit there yesterday, I saw all those large bags of rice are gone. All you can buy now are small bags of brown rice, some microwaveable white rice, and rice derivative products such as kayu (rice porridge).
A mad scramble to find rice
As with eggs earlier, many stores are limiting how much rice customers can buy at once. According to TBS News, one store in Sapporo, Hokkaido was limiting families to no more than 10kg at a time.
The shortage have sent people on a mad search for rice – a trend reflected in online searches. According to Google Trends, searches for 米 (kome), or rice, have shot up over three-fold in August.
Things are even tighter in the Osaka metropolitan area. A survey of retail outlets found that 80% of stores had sold out completely. That’s led Osaka governor Yoshimura Hirofumi to call on Japan’s Agricultural Ministry to tap into the country’s strategic reserves to relieve the burden.
Japan put strategic reserves in place after a rice shortage in 1993. According to Mainichi Shimbun, it currently has around 910,000 tons ready to release. It sells this rice off every five years, mostly for use as animal feed.
Damn tourists eatin’ all the rice!
What’s to blame for the rice shortage? It’s a complicated problem with a lot of factors.
Japan is highly dependent on its own domestic rice production to feed its population. The country consumes nearly 100% of the rice it produces. It imports less than 100 tons of rice a year. (This has varied throughout history: during World War II, Japan imported several hundred tons of rice from Korea, Taiwan, and other nations.) It also exports very little of its domestic rice – something Japan’s government has worked to change as domestic consumption of rice has declined.
The major driving force behind the domestic shortage is climate change. Last year’s extremely hot weather led to a poor crop – which means shortages this season.
Another factor is the arrival of back-to-back typhoons – including this week’s Typhoon 10, or Shanshan – and the threat of a major earthquake. That’s led to people stockpiling rice in case of disaster. It’s also August, which means that many drivers who would normally transport rice across the country took time off for the mid-month Obon holiday.
But there’s another theory: the tourists are eating all our rice!!
Japan ended 2023 with around 7.02 million tons of rice consumed – an increase in 11 tons from 2022. The country’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestery and Fisheries (MAFF) says that, between the country’s spike in inbound tourism and the relative cheapness of rice vs. bread and noodles, demand has risen. On top of that, there’s less rice in privates reserves than ever: officials project Japan only has around 156,000 tons – a drop of some 41 tons compared to last year.
Tourists eating all the rice: The math doesn’t work out
So is there any truth to this supposition – repeated in numerous reports across Japanese TV – that tourists are “eating all the rice” and leaving none for Japanese residents?
Reporters asked MAFF Minister Sakamoto Tetsushi to explain. According to Sakamoto, MAFF speculates that your average foreigner needs 1.2x more calories daily than your average Japanese person. Japan is now welcoming some 3.2 million inbound tourists – 2.3x more than the historical average – to Japan every month.
By this logic, Sakamoto says, inbound tourists are eating 51,000 tons of rice a year – an increase of some 31,000 tons. That’s a lot. However, Sakamoto pointed out, that’s a drop in the bucket compared to the 7.02 million tons of rice Japan eats every year. Indeed, using these numbers, tourist’s consumption of rice amounts to less than 0.5% of the national total.
Why Japan won’t tap its rice reserves
Despite the widespread shortages, MAFF Minister Sakamoto says the country won’t tap its rice reserves yet. Sakamoto told reporters at a press conference he’s concerned about the effects releasing the reserves could have on the market. The Ministry is worried that releasing the reserves could impact both the demand for and the price of rice.
Sakamoto further noted that the 2024 crop is now being harvested and prepared for distribution. MAFF predicts that the harvest will shortly relieve shortages and put rice back on supermarket shelves in due course.
My household’s down to the dregs of its last 5kg bag. So I’m crossing my fingers that Sakamoto’s predictions will become reality.
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“訪日客が食べ過ぎだから”の珍説も…コメ不足の真相に迫る 農水省は「そろそろ解消」. Daily Shincho
“令和の米不足”いつまで？ 品薄状態続き入荷してもすぐ売り切れ 新米が出回る９月には状況改善へ 農水大臣「落ち着いた購買行動を」. TBS News Dig
【速報】コメ不足で大阪府が備蓄米放出を農水省に要望「眠らせておく必要ない」府内8割の店で品切れ. ytv
農林水産省 “早いところでは新米も” 冷静な対応を呼びかけ. NHK News
品薄続くコメ 国の「備蓄米」、なぜ使わないのか? その理由. Mainichi Shimbun
コメ不足「9月ごろ解消」 坂本農相、備蓄米放出は慎重. Nikkei
その1：お米の自給率. MAFF
