Continuing with my theme from last month, I ran across an intriguing write-up recently. In a lengthy article, the Daily Shincho asked: why did two critically well-received fall dramas fail to attract viewers during their TV broadcast?
The article caught my attention because both shows were personal favorites of mine. Indeed, I’d say that at least one of them was downright clever. The other was a sequel to a hit show from 2006 that should have brought in a large audience. However, both shows brought in poorer than expected TV ratings. As it turns out, both shows were, in reality, pretty popular. The issue is that Japan is slowly changing how it watches TV.
An Unmarriable Man and a Stubborn NEET
The first drama in question is Mada Kekkon Dekinai Otoko (まだ結婚できない男), or The (Still) Unmarriable Man. Starring popular model and actor Abe Hiroshi (阿部寛; far right in picture at the top of this post), the series was a long-awaited sequel to 2006’s Kekkon Dekinai Otoko (The Unmarriable Man).
The story focuses on a successful architect, Kuwano Shinsuke (桑野信介), who’s adamant that he’ll never get married. Shinsuke doesn’t even date; he prefers to spend his free time in a variety of personal pursuits. But it’s more than that Shinsuke doesn’t want to marry. He is, for lack of a better word, an asshole – a smug know-it-all who lords his knowledge over others. Despite not caring to marry himself, he’s quick to mock unmarried older women for their “failure” to find a mate.
If that sounds awful…well, it is. But the series’ charm comes from watching as Shinsuke’s friendships with the women in his life gradually turn him into a better person. In the first series, he faces off against Natsukawa Yui (夏川結衣) in the role of Dr. Hayazaka Natsumi; in the second series, his formidable frenemy is lawyer Yoshiyama Madoka, played by the equally formidable veteran actress Yoshida Yo (吉田羊).
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The second show is Ore no Hanashi wa Nagai (俺の話は長い). Its protagonist (such as he is) is Mitsuru, played by Ikuta Touma (生田斗真). Mitsuru once ran a coffee cafe, but it failed, so now he’s a NEET (someone Not in Employment, Education or Training) who lives with his mother. When his sister, Ayako (Koike Eiko; 小池栄子), decides to renovate her home, she moves in temporarily with Mitsuru and her mother, bringing along her second husband, Koji, and her daughter from her first marriage, Harumi. Wacky hijinx, naturally, ensue.
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The great pleasure in Ore-Hana is its dialogue, Mitsuru loves to argue for arguing’s sake. He frequently gets in pitched battles with Ayako over trivial matters. In the first episode, Ayako makes Mitsuru’s favorite meal, sukiyaki – only to watch as Mitsuru decries sukiyaki as a waste of quality beef. The interactions between Ikuta and Koike in these scenes are a delight to watch, alternating between laugh-out-loud funny and deeply moving. The secondary plot – the relationship between Koji (Yasuda Ken; 安田顕) and his stepdaughter Harumi (Kiyohara Kaya; 清原果耶) – is equally endearing and engaging.
An Aging Population
Both shows should have drawn healthy TV viewerships. And yet, according to Daily Shincho, Mada Kekkon Dekinai Otoko averaged a mere 9.3% during its TV broadcast. By contrast, the first season drew a robust 16.9% viewership. This drop was in spite of keeping not only its core cast but its original screenwriter to boot.
This wasn’t because it sucked, Shincho argues. The debut episode was the #1 worldwide trend on Twitter the night it aired. The series also earned a high audience satisfaction ranking, ranking third behind season darlings Doctor-X and Grand Maison Tokyo.
Ore-Hana found itself on similar footing: a great script by a seasoned screenwriter and a solid cast have earned it positive reviews. But it performed even worse than Kekkon Dekinai, garnering a mere 8.3% average TV viewership.
So where are the viewers, ask Shincho?
The paper offers two explanations. First, thanks to Japan’s accelerating population decrease and aging population, the people most likely to be watching traditional TV aren’t likely interested in what either show had to offer.
Japan’s population is simultaneously shrinking and aging. In 2000, 17.3% of the population was 65 or older. By 2017, that had increased by 10%.
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This means, argues Shincho, that it’s hard for a drama to succeed if it doesn’t appeal to the 65+ population. Kekkon Dekinai, which is essentially a love comedy, and Ore-Hana, which is about a younger man in the throes of a period of extended adolescence, likely don’t hold much appeal for the senior set.
The Viewers Are Online
The other explanation – which won’t shock anybody who’s been paying attention to the direction of media in the past 10 years – is that most people under age 65 simply aren’t watching television on TV sets any longer.
Mada Kekkon Dekinai Otoko was available on the online service TVer, where the first episode has been viewed 1.25 million times. In fact, if you combine the TVer viewership numbers with the broadcast numbers, the series’ 6th episode scored a 17.4% viewership – which is higher than its prequel. Using this calculation, Ore-hana‘s 6th episode netted a respectable 16.4% viewership. Those are good, solid numbers that any Japanese drama would love to have.
So the issue isn’t that these shows weren’t popular. It’s that viewership is slowly shifting from TV to the Internet – or, as Shincho puts it, from Household Viewership (世帯視聴率; setai shichouritsu) to Individual Viewership (個人視聴率; kojin shichouritsu). The former number is public and shared with the press. The latter number, which is measured by the firm Video Research, is used internally and with advertisers.
How Will Online Viewing Change Japanese Drama?
Shincho concludes by saying that most TV companies in Japan put far more weight on the Individual Viewership numbers now than they do traditional Household Viewership stats. Advertisers want to aim targeted ads at younger, cash-flush audiences. Individual Viewership stats culled from online views can capture far more information about an audience- age, relative income level, shopping preferences, etc. – than traditional household viewership numbers ever could.
The question is: How will this change Japanese TV? It’s hard to say. But Shincho, in an obvious allusion to shows like Aibou, says that “it’ll be hard for detective dramas and such that are composed of elderly actors to survive” in this new environment.
In other words, for the time being, the “success” of a show on broadcast TV may be a sign that that show’s days are numbered.
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