Say what you want about Abe Shinzo. And I’ve said, uh, a lot of things. But there’s no denying he was a masterful politician. Through a combination of intra-party alliances and snap elections, he cemented his grip on the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). In the end, he served longer than any other Prime Minister of Japan.
Abe eventually stepped down, citing health reasons. We were treated to the short-lived reign of Suga Yoshihide, one of Abe’s right-hand men. Suga was affectionately known as the “Reiwa Grandpa”, as he was the one who publicly unveiled the new Imperial Era’s new name. But his initially high approval ratings came crashing down in the wake of the pandemic’s spread. (Remember the misbegotten Go To Travel campaign? Pepperidge Farm remembers.)
Kishida soars – then crashes
Which brings us to the current Prime Minister, Kishida Fumio (岸田文雄). Kishida’s enjoyed high approval ratings for some time. Earlier this year in May 2022, in Asahi Shimbun’s polling, he stood at 59% approval and only 26% disapproval.
Why the big numbers? Looking at the NHK polling at the time, voters gave Kishida high marks for his handling of Russia’s assault of Ukraine (there is, historically, no love lost between these two countries). Voters also praised his policy towards rising consumer prices and his handling of the pandemic.
But then Abe was assassinated. And it all went south.
Now, Kishida is suffering his worse approval ratings to date. Asahi’s polling has his approval at 40% and his disapproval at 50%. It’s the second month his approval has been upside down – and the first time his disapproval has ever entered the majority.
(In my original tweet about this, some right-wingers tried to discount the Asahi poll. But as I noted, even LDP-aligned publications like Sankei are showing a dive. Every major news org and paper shows similar trends in their own polling.)
There are various factors driving down Kishida’s numbers. But those same numbers also show that the political opposition isn’t likely to benefit from the plummet.
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Abe’s assassin struck out because he felt his family had been bankrupted by the Unification Church, a South Korean-based new religious movement whose founder thinks he’s Jesus. The revelation led the press to dig into exactly how deeply they were tied to the LDP. Stories from former UC members and family members on the church’s exploitative financial practices have only lent fuel to the fire.
The public has grown increasingly disgruntled with Kishida’s fumbling attempts to explicate the party’s ties to the church. In the Asahi poll, 67% of respondents say he hasn’t done enough to force his parties to sever ties with the org.
Then there’s Abe’s expensive state funeral, which Kishida pushed through despite increasing public opposition to the cost. 59% of respondents say they thought negatively about the event. (Again, party support is higher, with 58% of respondents saying they were fine with the showy farewell. Independents said “naw” to the tune of 67%.)
Additionally, some 69% of those polled said they didn’t have high hopes for Kishida’s economic agenda (yikes).
The opposition’s lackluster reputation gets worse
But Kishida’s loss is not likely the political opposition’s gain.
First, Kishida’s support within his own party remains strong. 70% of LDP members still support him. Independents, by contrast, don’t support him by a whopping 24-62 margin. So it appears there’s little appetite within the ruling party for a changing of the guard.
Second, while the LDP isn’t doing well, the opposition parties are, somehow, doing worse.
On the one hand, Kishida’s taking the party down with him. Some 81% of those polls said they didn’t “hold much hope” for the party to get things done.
On the other hand, when asked about the opposition parties, 81% said they didn’t hold much hope for them either! And that’s up one point from when Asahi asked the question in May.
Keep in mind that Asahi tends to be one of the more liberal polling outlets. I haven’t dug into it but it’s possible their numbers are, realistically, even worse when averaged across polls.
Why the opposition can’t capitalize
The weak political opposition is a tale so old in Japan it might as well be written in the Kojiki. Tons of ink has been spilled on this in the Japanese press over the past six or more years.
We saw the same phenomenon during Abe’s reign. Abe remained unpopular throughout a good chunk of his historically long tenure. Even when his numbers fell nearly as low as Kishida’s, he managed to remain in power – as did the LDP.
In overall terms, the LDP maintains an astounding 36% support in latest polls. The next closest are the Japan Innovation Party (維新の党; ishin no tou) at 5.1% and the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP; 立件民主党 – rikkenminshutou) at 4.8%. The LDP-aligned Komeito (公明党) and the remaining opposition parties all come in at under 3% support.
This has been more or less the situation for years. The former Democratic Party (民主党; minshutou) held a solid lead over the LDP for a few years but lost it between 2011 and 2012.
Why can’t the opposition triumph? One reason is simply voter turnout. Year after year, fewer people are voting in Japan’s elections[4]. That means the victories tend to go the dominant party, as their more motivated voters turn out in support. The last time the Democratic Party won in 2011, for example, voter turnout was at a stellar 69.28%. In more recent elections, it’s come down to around 50%[5].
Some members of the opposition blame this on Abe. They say his scandal-plagued government helped disillusion people about politics altogether. But it’s also true that the opposition has remained relatively uncoordinated. And it’s done a lackluster job of communicating a grand vision to the public of how regime change could alter Japan’s trajectory.
Capitalizing on this, the LDP and its press allies have done a good job of painting the opposition as doing “nothing but criticizing” the current government. Of course, as author Hirano Keiichiro points out, when the opposition does file a number of proposals, the LDP just ignores them[6].
So what can the opposition do to improve its image? Ideas are as abundant as commentators. One CDP member, Ogawa Junya, is urging his party to adopt a selfless manner, explain to the public how it’s learned from the past, and set forth a clear vision for the future of Japan.
“Japan and the world are facing problems like population decline, decline in growth, deteriorating finances, and climate change that it’s never experienced before. We have to give the people a complete, panoramic picture of the policies we’d institute to tackle these major problems.”
Japan may not be stuck with Kishida for much longer. It all depends how the political winds blow in the coming months.
But until the opposition does…something, it will certainly remain stuck with whoever manages to next barge their way through the LDP’s revolving door of leadership.
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Sources
[1] 内閣支持率. NHK News
[2] 内閣不支持、初の50%に 国葬「評価しない」59% 朝日世論調査. Asahi Shimbun
[3] 各党の支持率は NHK世論調査. NHK
[4] 参院選 各党は投票率低下傾向で若者世代へ関心喚起の取り組み. NHK News
[5]どいまだ支持伸びぬ野党が魅力取り戻す3つのカギ. Toyo Keizai
[6] 【「批判ばかり野党」再燃】 平野啓一郎さん. Nishi Nippon Shimbun
