On Sunday, Japan goes to the polls to elect members of the Upper House of the National Diet, its ruling parliamentary body. In a swift development, the far-right party Sanseitō is expected to overperform, based on the latest polling numbers.
How has Sanseitō built up its base? Mainly by lying. Taking a page out of US President Donald Trump’s fascist playbook, the party continues to spew talking points that have little connection to reality. That’s leading to a more hostile environment for their favorite target: foreigners living in Japan.
Sanseitō hops on the anti-immigrant bandwagon
It’s worth asking: How did we get here? How did a far-right party whose motto is “Japanese first” get into a position where it could disrupt the government?
The answer: By hating on immigrants.
As I discussed recently in a piece for Unseen Japan Insider, the online right in Japan has gone after immigrants – particularly Chinese and Korean immigrants – for years. We’ve debunked many of these false claims, such as the idea that immigrants commit more crimes than citizens, take their unfair share of welfare, and take advantage of the country’s high-cost healthcare benefits. Chinese residents and the small Kurdish population in Saitama Prefecture have been the right’s most popular targets these past two years.
However, these ideas largely remained on the fringes of Japan’s political spectrum. That changed when the right-leaning Democratic Party for the People (DPFP), which surged after last year’s Lower House election, began injecting them into official political discourse.
One glaring example is the falsehood, pushed by the DPFP’s Tamaki Yūichirō, that foreigners got free education in Japan while Japanese citizens had to pay back student loans. The truth is that the program is only for PhD candidates, and the majority of the grants go to Japanese students.
Such nuances, however, are lost on the general public. A recent report found that a majority of people believe that foreigners in Japan receive preferential treatment, even though the evidence for this notion is nonexistent. A more recent poll showed majority support for “reining in” Japan’s foreign population (whatever that means).
Sanseitō tries lying its way to electoral success
Not too long ago, the DPFP was the most popular party among voters in their 20s. Thanks to a series of scandals and public blunders, however, the DPFP’s electoral fortunes have waned.
That’s left an opening for an even more anti-immigrant party to fill the gap.
Founded in 2020, Sanseitō gained notoriety through its anti-vaccine rhetoric during the COVID-19 pandemic. It’s grown to embrace a rabid anti-immigrant policy under the slogan “Japanese First” (日本人ファースト; nihonjin faasuto).
The party shocked observers last month when it overperformed in the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly Election, scoring three seats. Since then, it’s made a stunning climb in public support, becoming the second most popular opposition party after the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP). The party is pulling young voters who are upset with the long-ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), whom they see as sacrificing the country’s youth for the benefit of Japan’s growing elderly population.
Making up facts on the spot
Other parties, such as the Conservative Party and the Protect The People From The NHK Party, have also joined in on the foreigner-bashing. But Sanseitō’s the one that’s seen the most success as it pushes common tropes about foreigners soaking up all of Japan’s tax money.
In particular, it’s been pushing the trope that social welfare requests from foreign residents are given precedence over requests from citizens. In fact, only permanent residents, fewer than a million of Japan’s 3.31 million foreign population, can claim benefits. (And, gentle reminder – those folks have spent years paying Japanese taxes!)
Party head Kamiya Sōhei hasn’t been shy about twisting the truth to continue raising fears of a “foreign invasion” of Japan. For example, while campaigning in Miyagi Prefecture, Kamiya claimed that the local government had privatized its municipal waterworks and sold them off to foreign investors. The accusation plays into fears of foreign investment, with some on the right arguing that China is attempting to “take over” Japan via real estate purchases.
However, Prefectural Governor Murai Yoshihiro said that Kamiya’s claims are flat-out false. The prefecture still owns its waterworks. It’s hired a private company to assist in its operations – but that company is primarily owned by Japanese investors.
It’s not surprising that Kamiya would try to single out Miyagi Prefecture. Governor Murai has been openly accepting of foreigners. Besides approving the construction of a Muslim cemetery, he’s also called for Japan to welcome more foreign workers to help the country with its chronic labor shortages.
MAGA “flood the zone” tactics to win elections…with Russia’s help?
Sanseitō’s tactics are reminiscent of the tactics used by the MAGA movement in America to propel Trump to victory. MAGA architect Steve Bannon has referred to this strategy as “flood the zone with shit.” In other words, you put out so many falsehoods that the media and your opponents struggle to keep up.
Lawyer and feminist Ōta Keiko clocked this strategy in a recent post on X:
“Sanseitō’s lies are similar to the tactics I’ve seen these past three years…Appeal to people’s prejudices with a series of lies whose value is in going viral – it doesn’t matter if there’s no evidence, if the evidence contradicts it, or even if it lacks logical consistency. Society’s ability to see through this and beat it back has proven extremely weak.”
Sanseitō may have some help in spreading its message. Social media site X has recently shuttered a number of accounts with tens of thousands of followers that were spreading a combined “Japan first” plus pro-Russian message. The accounts specifically attacked current LDP Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru.
Experts say it’s highly likely these and other accounts are evidence of Russian interference in Japan’s Upper House election. The DPFP’s Tamaki called for an investigation into this “foreign influence,” as did the LDP’s Koizumi Shinjirō. But Sanseitō’s Kamiya came to the defense of the propagandists.
“How did you determine this is foreign influence?” he shot back at Koizumi. “All that happened here was they deleted criticism of the LDP and the current government.”
It’s not like Sanseitō can form its own government. However, it could leech enough support from the LDP to prevent it from cobbling together a majority. That will likely lead to the LDP and DPFP turning harder to the right. That could also lead other liberal-leaning parties to compromise on right-wing hobby horses in order to form and keep a coalition.
The result? An increasingly rightward swing for Japan. In particular, a crackdown on immigrants at a time when the country and its dwindling population can least afford it.
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Sources
宮城 村井知事 参政 神谷代表を強く批判 水道事業めぐる発言で. NHK
生活保護は「受給権がない外国人ばかり」 参政党候補の発言は不正確. Mainichi Shimbun
ロシアがSNSで選挙介入？ 広がる懸念、専門家や政府の見解は. Asahi Shimbun
This infamous Steve Bannon quote is key to understanding America’s crazy politics. CNN
石破内閣支持31％「投票行くか」前回比較 参院選1週前世論調査. NHK News
