What Japan’s Thinking: February 2020

Kid thinking
What do people in Japan think about Abe's latest scandal, the advent of casinos, the novel coronavirus and other topics? Find out in our member exclusive!

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What are people in Japan thinking about the news of the day? Both NHK and Asahi Shinbun have recently run surveys assessing not just the popularity of Prime Minister Abe Shinzo, but Japanese public opinion on a wide variety of issues. How is Abe doing in the wake of his latest scandal? What do people feel about the handling of the novel coronavirus? Does the public support Kagawa Prefecture’s proposed regulations on screen time?

Let’s dive in and find out.

Abe’s Support is Static; Cherry Blossom Problem Remains

How is Abe doing? After all, as the head of a coalition government in a Parliamentary system, continued public support is crucial for retaining his position.

The answer is: relatively static. Most recent polls – including NHK – show Abe retaining around a 45% public approval rating. It isn’t dropping; however, it isn’t rising, either. Asahi shows the PM coming in lower, clocking only 38% support and 41% disapproval. However, Asahi’s poll is older by a few weeks. And Asahi tends to track to a more liberal audience (although its poll supposedly contained 37% of LDP members).

What’s clearer is that the Japanese public doesn’t buy Abe’s explanations around the Cherry Blossom Viewing Party (桜を見る会). 24% of NHK respondents “mostly don’t buy” Abe’s explanations around the scandal. A full 44% “absolutely don’t buy” them. This means some 63% of the Japanese public thinks Abe’s full of crap on this issue. This is consistent across polls: 73% of Asahi respondents also “don’t buy” Abe’s excuses here.

Reiwa Stands at 4%

LDP Diet member Kimura Eiko (Reiwa Shinsengumi) with Reiwa Party head Yamamoto Tarou. (Picture: The Asahi Shimbun via Getty Images)

Party-wise, 37% of the public say they’d support the Liberal Democratic Party in the next election, according to Asahi. Their coalition partners, they Komeito (公明党), hold an additional 6%, giving the parties a commanding control of public opinion compared to the opposition.

The Constitutional Democrats (立憲民主党; rikken minshutou) comes in second with 15%. The Japanese Communist Party (共産党; kyousantou) still holds a 4% share of public attention.

One promising sign is the advent of Yamamoto Tarou’s Reiwa Shinsengumi. Despite being a young party with only two candidates in office, it’s earning 4% support for the next election – in line with the Communists, who have been around for decades. Yamamoto supports a liberal platform that involves canceling student debt and raising the minimum wage. He also helped make Japanese history by working to elect two disabled candidates to the Diet.

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On the depressing side, 2% of Japan still supports those idiots in the Protect the People from the NHK Party (NHKから国民を守る党; NHK kara kokumin o mamoru tou).

No Election Before the Olympics!

There’s active debate in Japan on when the next election for the Lower House should be held. (The House’s term expires next October.) Abe seems disposed to hold it before the Olympics – a power play that would obviously depress turnout. However, only 10% of Japan supports the move, say Asahi. 48% says it should happen this year after the Olympics and Paralympics, and 37% say it should happen next year once the hullabaloo has died down.

Approval of Novel Coronavirus Handling; Calls to Restrict Immigration

Perhaps the most surprising result for Western observers is public opinion around the handling of the novel coronavirus outbreak. According to NHK, some 64% of the public approves of the government’s handling of the outbreak to date (10% fully, 54% “to some extent”). Many worldwide observers – and even those at home – have questioned the government’s decision to let people “self-quarantine.”

In terms of novel coronavirus itself, 19% of the public feels “very uneasy” about it, while 54% feel “somewhat uneasy.” However, a full 74% favor “severely restricting” immigration in order to contain the virus.

Yes to Middle East Deployment; No to Casinos and Revised Constitution

Just because the LDP is popular doesn’t mean the public endorses their entire agenda. In fact, many items on Abe’s docket remain deeply unpopular.

One decision the Japanese public generally approves of is the Abe cabinet’s deployment of the Self-Defense Force to the Middle East. The deployment is intended to gather information that will enable Japan to safeguard ships in the region. In both Asahi (43%) and NHK’s (48%) polls, a majority support the deployment. However, a full 35% (NHK; 37% Asahi) say they oppose it.

However, the public is still against unfettering the SDF completely. Abe has made revising Article 9 of Japan’s Constitution, which limits Japan’s armed forces to defense of the homeland, a main goal of his tenure. However, according to Asahi, 50% of the Japanese public still opposes this goal.

The judgment is even harsher when it comes to Abe’s plan to introduce casinos – or “Integrated Resorts” in government parlance – to Japan. According to Asahi, a full 63% of the public opposes the move. Moreover, in the wake of a massive bribery scandal in which an LDP member was arrested for taking casino-related bribes from a Chinese company, 64% of Asahi respondents said the casino creation process should come to a halt. 51% of NHK readers agreed (and only 27% disagreed).

Kudos for Koizumi on Paternity Leave Announcement

One politician who managed to score a ton of points recently was Koizumi Shintarou. Abe’s heir apparent and Japan’s Environmental Minister recently announced he would take two weeks of parental leave, making him the first Cabinet minister to do so. A full 69% of Japan looks favorably upon his announcement. 50% think it will encourage more men in Japan to follow his example. These numbers seem to reflect a real thirst in Japan for men to do their fair share as husbands, instead of finding excuses not to go home.

No to Screen Time Law

Yesterday I wrote about Kagawa Prefecture’s proposed rule that would encourage parents to limit their kids’ screen time to one hour a day. Many have already spoken out against the proposal. The Japanese public also isn’t hot on it: 57% say they don’t support the proposal, according to Asahi.

Conclusion

Of course, just because the public opposes Abe’s policies doesn’t mean they won’t happen. Public opposition to casinos has been high for years. But the law passed regardless.

I’ll be watching whether Abe pushes for a pre-Olympics Lower House election. If the election is held afterwards, then the opposition parties – who have been making noise about cooperating more closely – may be able to score some wins and chip away at the 2/3rds majority Abe needs to rewrite the Constitution.

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