We’ve covered a lot about the rise of Sanseitō in Japan. A lot of people have asked us: What does it mean? Does this extreme right-wing party have a chance of taking over Japan? Will its bizarre “revere the Emperor and expel the barbarians” Constitution somehow become law?
On the one hand, Sanseitō, qua party, is nowhere near hijacking Japan’s legislative process. The party shocked Japan and the world this month when it grabbed 13 seats in the Upper House of Japan’s National Diet, its highest legislative body. It had previously had one, giving them a total of 14.
The Upper House (House of Councillors) has 248 seats. The Lower House (House of Representatives), which holds significant power in the legislative process, has 465. Sanseitō only has three seats. That’s a grand total of 17 seats out of 713.
In terms of raw political power, the party remains a tiny minority. There are two worrying trends I’m seeing in Japanese media, though, that could give it an outsized influence. The first is public opinion polls. The second is the fractious state of the LDP.
The “Japanese First” soundbite is resonating
On the one hand, the left-leaning Mainichi Shimbun is reporting that Japanese citizens it surveyed don’t think Sanseitō can get much done. Only 19% said they anticipate the party making rapid progress. 46% said they don’t think that will happen.
However, a poll from the (also left-leaning) Asahi Shimbun brings some troubling data. Out of 1,250 respondents, 52% thought the party’s surprise showing was a good thing. Only 34% disagreed.
