It’s the world’s most non-newsy news: Japan’s population is shrinking. Fast. New numbers show the country hitting record population lows.
The other headline, however, is that Japan’s foreign population is positively booming. This comes at a time when the country’s right-wing is surging under the motto “Japanese First.”
Which raises the question: Which of these two contradictory trends will win? And what will happen to Japan if it clamps down on the foreign workers it so desperately needs?
Japan’s foreign population increases by 10.5%
You’ve likely seen the headlines from other media outlets by now. Japan’s Ministry of Internal Affairs recently announced that, as of January 1st 2025, the country’s population stood at 120,653,227 people.
That’s a drop of 908,574 people – the largest drop in the past 16 years. The country’s population has fallen every year of those past 16 years, with the decline seemingly getting worse year over year. The plummet is driven by both a record high number of deaths and a record low number of births.
One population in Japan, however, isn’t decreasing: its resident foreign population.
According to Japan’s Ministry of Justice, there are now 3,769,977 foreign residents in Japan. That’s an increase of 10.5% and marks the first time it’s passed 3.5 million. The majority of new arrivals are from China, Vietnam, Nepal, Indonesia, and Myanmar.
The rise in foreign residents is intentional. On its website, Japan’s dominant Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) makes a nod to nationalism in promising that it will work on “accepting foreigners who follow the rules while dealing strictly with those who do not.”
In practice, this has meant a more liberal approach to immigration. In 2024, for example, Japan’s government added four new industries to its skilled foreign worker visa program. This year, the country announced it would reduce language requirements for foreign bus and taxi drivers. (Japan is currently experiencing a lack of qualified drivers thanks to its tourist boom, leading to overcrowded buses and a spike in illegal taxi services.)
“Japanese First” – but who’s gonna keep the economy afloat?
While all of this is happening, Japan is experiencing a surge in right-wing populism that’s triggered a wave of anti-foreigner sentiment.
We’ve documented the rise of the right-wing Sanseitō party, and discussed how the party will likely have an impact beyond its meager representation in Japanese government. We’re already seeing signs of that impact: the government announced recently that it was partially ending subsidies for foreign PhD researchers after right-wingers made it an issue.
Beyond Sanseitō, Japan’s online right-wing has actively stoked rage against foreigners on social media. It’s made the 3,000 or so Kurds living in Kawaguchi, Saitama Prefecture, a target of hate and suspicion. It’s currently running the same playbook after a Vietnamese technical intern killed a Japanese citizen in the city of Imari.
This propaganda, combined with Japan’s weak economy and the impact of overtourism, has had a significant impact on public opinion. A recent Asahi Shimbun poll showed 48% agreed with the sentiment behind Sanseitō’s slogan, “Japanese First.”
A surge of toothless changes vs. women returning to the home
These two trends are at odds with one another. Something’s gotta give.
The question is: Will Japan stick to its immigration guns? Or will it follow the US and shoot its economy in the face?
Currently, despite losing its majority in the recent Upper and Lower House elections, the LDP holds tenuous power over the Japanese government. Ishiba Shigeru remains Prime Minister despite calls from within his own party to resign. And the LDP still holds the most seats of any party.
So far, it’s used its power to make loud but essentially meaningless changes. The SPRING program is one example. Another is the recent announcement that the government will increase the investment dollar requirements for a business management visa, from five million yen ($33,800) to 30 million yen ($202K).
To be sure, these decisions are cruel and heartless. And I don’t mean to minimize the impact they have on the people affected. But, from a macro perspective, they’re toothless. They don’t enrich Japan or meaningfully decrease immigration to any degree.
The “burden” of foreigners
The LDP is conservative and bumbling. But it’s not stupid. And, for now, the people in charge are firmly members of the Committee for Not Shooting Ourselves In The Faces.
By contrast, Sanseitō’s Kamiya Sōhei has written about the “burden” created by the increase in foreign workers:
また、災害時の外国人支援にも課題があり、避難所のルール整備、言語対応、食料支援など、十分な備えがあるのかが問われる。外国人労働者を含む外国人受入れには多くの経済・社会コストが伴うにもかかわらず、政府はその試算を行っていない。…先進国の政策転換を踏まえ、我が国も早急にコストの集計と政策の見直しを進めるべきである。
We have to ask whether we have enough resources to support foreigners during emergencies – setting rules for emergency shelters, supporting multiple languages, preparing meals, etc. The government doesn’t take the significant economic and societal costs of accepting foreign laborers into consideration….Our country must act like a developed nation and quickly reassess the total costs and our strategy.
Kamiya’s missive doesn’t explicitly say “let’s cut down on immigration.” But he’s obviously laying the groundwork for it based on “data.”
So how does the Japanese right-wing plan to have enough workers to support the economy? By making sure Japanese women are barefoot and pregnant. One of the party’s key platform tenets is “ensuring that becoming a housewife is seen as an honorable choice.”
“We must return to the days when people valued the dream of becoming mothers.”
All of this is, of course, couched in the language of voluntary selection. However, as we’ve seen with other fascist movements worldwide, such policies are simply the first stab at moving the Overton Window. Look at the United States, where a campaign against trans women in sports has morphed into calls to roll back marriage equality.
Conclusion
I don’t have a crystal ball. So it’s impossible to say in which direction Japan will bend.
The country’s business leaders hold much sway over its political life. It’s possible they’ll apply enough pressure to ensure Japan continues to enjoy a steady (and perhaps even increasing) supply of cheap foreign labor.
On the other hand, we’ve seen in the US how quickly racist rhetoric can overtake common sense. If a “Japanese first” mentality wins the day, Japan may well decide to turn Japan Sinks from the title of a novel into a terrifying reality.
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Sources
日本人90万人減、前年比で最大 外国人は35万人増え過去最多367万人. Nikkei
外国人運転手の日本語要件緩和へ バス・タクシー人手不足踏まえ―政府. Jiji
国民の安心と安全のための外国人政策 第一次提言― 違法外国人ゼロを目指して ―. Liberal Democratic Party of Japan
4 new industries added to skilled foreign worker visa program. Asahi Shimbun English Edition
Number of foreign residents at the end of 2024. Japan Ministry of Justice
在留資格「経営・管理」の要件、厳格化へ 資本金など6倍で最終調整. Asahi Shimbun
「日本人ファースト」を評価する48%、評価しない41% 朝日世論. Asahi Shimbun
移民政策及び外国人の受入れに伴う財政・社会負担に関する質問主意書. Sanseitō
