Some municipalities in Japan may see more than 50% of its population become foreign residents by 2050, local news reports. The predicted shift gives us a glimpse into how Japan might change as the government expands immigration and more foreigners take up residence here.
Projection no.1: Japan’s resort areas to be over 50% foreign residents
As Japan’s population declines, the country is relying more on immigrants to fortify its workforce. Japan’s government is doing more to increase immigration, including adding 14 new eligible job categories for new arrivals.
These trends mean that some areas are becoming dominated by foreign residents. If an area is home to famous resort hotels, that means by 2050, over half of its residents will be foreigners, an article from Japanese news source Diamond Online argued.
Renowned for “powder snow,” Hokkaido‘s towns and villages that attract skiers every year may become popular settling spots for foreigners. Such locations include towns Niseko, Kutchan and villages Rusutsu, Akaigawa, and Shimukappu.
Shimukappu village is expected to have a population consisting mostly of foreign residents at the current rate of incoming foreigners. Just between 2022 and 2023, the village welcomed over 200 new foreign residents.
Nagano, which also attracts tourists for its ski resorts, will also see villages such as Hakuba and Nozawaonsen housing more foreigners than Japanese.
Hokkaido and Nagano both have resorts that attract foreigners. They also both have established systems to teach foreign trainees who work in factory work, fisheries, and farming.
Projection no.2: Shinjuku and Toshima to be 40% foreign residents
By 2050, foreign nationals may make up nearly 40% of the population in Tokyo wards Shinjuku and Toshima. Today, about 13% of Shinjuku’s residents and about 11% of Toshima’s are foreign nationals.
Projections say that the foreign residents’ community will grow the most in these two wards, which each have an established network of immigrants. In Shinjuku, there is Shinokubo––better known as the hub of South Korean food, cosmetics, and shopping. In Toshima, the northern side of Ikebukuro is transforming into a Chinatown.
As a result, over 38% of Shinjuku and Toshima wards will be occupied by foreign residents in just three decades, according to Diamond Online.
Toshima’s local population is disappearing
Toshima Ward’s Japanese residents are dwindling while incoming foreign residents are sustaining the overall population size.
In 2022, the number of Toshima’s deaths overtook the number of births, reducing the population by almost 500. In addition, over 2,600 locals moved out of Toshima. However, the overall drop in Japanese residents (about 3,100) was replaced by a larger arrival of about 3,500 foreign nationals.
The decline of Toshima’s local population is no surprise, as experts designated it as a “municipality at risk of disappearing” in 2014. That means that its population of young women would more than halve by 2040.
The black holes of Japan
A decade later this year, another expert panel said that Toshima is no longer at risk of disappearing but is a “black hole-type municipality.” Black hole towns are those that rely on attracting incoming residents to survive.
There are 17 municipalities that are now “black holes.” In these areas, a consistent inflow of new residents will keep the falling rate of women in their 20s and 30s below 50%. However, without migration, these municipalities will see a declining rate of young women of over 50%.
Osaka (women in their 20s and 30s will decline by 25.9%)
Kyoto (27.2%)
Shinjuku (6.6%)
Toshima (2.8%)
Shibuya (5.2%)
Nakano (9.3%)
Aogashima (23.1%)
Stats on foreign residents in Japan today
The number of Japan’s foreign residents increased by over 10% and surpassed 3.4 million last year, reaching a record high, the latest government data says. Over 90% are mid- to long-term residents. The remainder are special permanent residents, such as Zainichi Koreans.
Chinese nationals represent the largest demographic of foreign residents, followed by Vietnam, South Korea, and the Philippines.
China 821,838
Vietnam 565,026
South Korea 410, 156
Philippines 322,046
Brazil 211,840
Nepal 176,336
Indonesia 149,101
Myanmar 86,546
Taiwan 64,663
U.S.A. 63,408
Tokyo is the prefecture home to the most foreign residents, followed by Aichi, Osaka, Kanagawa, and Saitama.
Tokyo 663, 362
Aichi 310,845
Osaka 301,490
Kanagawa 267,523
Saitama 234,698
As Japan’s population makeup shifts, it’s affecting how native Japanese residents think and feel about foreigners in their midst. A government report from last year showed mixed feelings about foreign residents, particularly among the elderly. However, it also revealed that many Japanese people say they don’t have many opportunities to interact with their non-Japanese neighbors.
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