I am not an expert on Japanese politics. I’d call myself an “aspiring dilettante” at best. But there’s something about the chess-like nature of politics that has always intrigued me. Japanese politics particularly intrigues me, as every time I read an article about national politics these days, I’m left with a single question burning brightly in my mind:
How the hell does Prime Minister Abe Shinzou still have a job?
In one sense, that question is easy to answer. Abe is an adroit politician. You can see this in the combative yet clever way he handles himself in the Japanese Diet, and in the solid power base he’s managed to amass within the Jimintou (自民党, Liberal Democratic Party), the party with a virtual monopoly on the Japanese polity. His virtuosity as a politician explains why his is only the third Japanese ruling cabinet since 1080 to serve out five terms in office.
But in another sense, Abe’s steadfastness is a mystery. In the past several years, Abe has managed to fall into scandal upon scandal, raising almost daily questions among the Japanese people about his fitness to govern. Some scandals have been so severe they have, at times, paralyzed the Diet, and brought legislative work to a grinding halt. Some of Abe’s Greatest Hits include:
The Moritomo School Problem (森友学園問題). The pre-eminent scandal of Abe’s administration involves a friend, Kagoike Yasunori (籠池泰典), who wanted to build a school in Osaka. After buying some choice property from the government, Abe’s wife, Akie, spoke at a pre-school run by the same group. The next year, the school group complained to the government that they’d discovered massive amounts of garbage at the site, and wanted a price reduction on the property – which they received to the hefty tune of around (about USD $8 million).
As the story developed, it became clear that the Ministry of Finance, which approved the price reduction, never actually verified the group’s claims. Even worse, individuals at the Ministry were eventually found to have re-written internal documents to support the school’s case.
Despite his and his wife’s relationship with Kagoike, Abe vociferously denied involving himself in the controversial land deal. Abe’s opponents accused him of engaging in sontaku seiji (忖度政治), or “governance by conjecture” – i.e., letting his underlings know how he felt and tacitly expecting they would cater to his wishes. Eventually, the head of the Ministry of Finance lost his job, and both Kagoike and his wife went to jail on charges of defrauding the government. Abe, however, stuck out a dip in the polls and managed to remain in office.
The Kake School Problem (加計学園問題). Abe seems to have a preference for school-related scandals. It might be a result of the friends he chooses to keep. In this case, a very close friend of the Prime Minister’s, Kake Koutarou (加計孝太郎), the head of the Kake School Group, had been trying to build a veterinary school in the city of Ibarashi in Aichi Prefecture since at least 2007. After Abe took office for a second time, the group suddenly experienced remarkable success in getting the necessary approvals; in April 2018, the school became the first new veterinary school in Japan in 52 years.
Last year, however, it was rumored that an internal document had been circulating suggesting that granting the rights to open the school to the Kake group was “the Prime Minister’s wish” (総理のご意向). Abe and others in his party derided the document as a “mystery document”, and ridiculed the opposition for not being able to provide concrete proof. However, Asahi Shinbun eventually obtained documented proof of these claims. Additionally, Maekawa Kihei (前川喜平), a bureaucrat with the Ministry of Education, testified that an aide pushed him to help approve the deal, telling him, “The Prime Minister can’t say this himself, so I’ll say it for him.”
The scandal resulted in another set of inquiries in the national Diet. As seen by this graph from NHK, Abe’s approval ratings have gone up and down as a result. In November 2017, at the height of the Kake School controversy, his disapproval rating soared to 43%. (“Support” is the red line; “Don’t Support” is the blue line.)
But, as commentator Furuya Tsunehira notes, this isn’t actually bad enough in the world of Japanese politics:
しかし政党支持率では、自民党は第二党である立憲民主党のそれを大きく引き離し、概ね30％～35％。「政党支持率と内閣支持率の和が50を下回るとその政権は退陣する」という「青木方程式（青木率）」に当てはめれば、第二次安倍政権は60近傍の準安全圏にある。自民党支持率を35％に固定すると、50を下回るためには内閣支持率は15％未満に低下しなければならない。要するにまだ余力を残している状態だ。
But in terms of party support, the Jimintou surpasses the second largest party, the Rikken Minshutou [Constitutional Democratic Party] by around 30-35%. If we use the “Aoki Equation”, which says that a government must resign if the sum of its support and the party’s support falls below 50%, the second Abe government is still in the safety zone of the 60s. If the Jimintou’s support remains fixed at 35%, then the Abe cabinet’s support must slip down to 15% for this to happen. In other words, in this environment, the government still has staying power.
This helps explain why, even in the face of the public stating that they weren’t satisfied with Abe’s explanations, he still managed to retain his job. Not only that – he practically dared the public to fire him by dissolving the Diet and calling a special election near the end of 2017. Thanks to a combination of political savvy, as well as the complete ineptitude of his opponents (which is a fascinating story for another time), Abe sailed to a clear victory. Since then, his numbers have been all over the map, taking a severe dip during the spring legislative session, when Diet investigations into these various scandals were making headlines, to now, where Abe appears to be treading water.
According to polling, Abe’s secret weapon has been stability. The Japanese public values stability, safety, and a positive direction for the country above all else. Despite the record streak of scandals, Abe has brought that. While the Japanese economy still has a ways to go before one can call it “vibrant”, it’s a damn sight better than it’s been in previous years, and the public seems to give Abe credit for that.
Now, on September 7th, Abe faces his latest challenge to power. His term in office officially ends on September 30th, and the Jimintou is slated to hold its general election for Prime Minister. Abe faces competition from Ishiba Shigeru, the former General Secretary of the Party. Few commentators seem to think that Abe can lose this party election. Either way, Abe declared in a press conference yesterday that this would be his “last” election. Abe didn’t elaborate, leading to speculation as to how serious a pronouncement it is.
Whatever you think of Abe, one can only imagine that the continuous wave of scandals has taken its toll on the Prime Minister’s mental health. He’s well overdue for a break from the drama. Color me as sad, though. I have no particular fondness for Abe’s policies or his high-handed approach to governing. But, damn, Japanese politics will be a hell of a lot less interesting without him in charge.
