For the first time in years, Japan’s politics are anything but predictable. With the political landscape shifting faster than anyone expected, the usual slogans about “stability” and “experience” ring hollow. After twenty-six years together as the ruling coalition, Kōmeitō has split from the LDP. The breakup ends one of the longest, most enduring political partnerships in postwar history, and throws Japan’s leadership into disarray.
Kōmeitō, backed by the lay Buddhist organization Soka Gakkai, announced it would leave the alliance in October 2025. The immediate cause was a familiar one: money, power, and trust. The LDP’s funding scandal, which exposed undeclared revenues and factional slush funds, left Kōmeitō unable to defend the coalition’s integrity. When newly elected LDP leader Takaichi Sanae refused to commit to meaningful reform, the decision became unavoidable.
For Kōmeitō, the move was as much about conscience as survival. For the LDP, it was a warning that Japan’s era of quiet political stability may finally be over.
A marriage of convenience
When the Liberal Democratic Party and Kōmeitō first joined forces in 1999, the arrangement was hardly romantic. The LDP, dominant but increasingly isolated, needed votes. Kōmeitō, smaller and morally driven, needed influence. Together, they promised stability.
And, for a time, they delivered it.
Kōmeitō’s secret weapon wasn’t money or charisma. It was organization. Backed by the lay Buddhist movement Soka Gakkai, the party commanded one of Japan’s most disciplined voter networks. Members canvassed door-to-door, made calls from community centers, and turned out at the polls with near-military precision.
In exchange, Kōmeitō gained a seat at the policymaking table. They tempered the LDP’s more nationalist instincts on defense, education, and social welfare.
For two decades, the relationship functioned like a well-worn marriage: predictable, transactional, and quietly tense. Publicly, leaders praised “unity and cooperation.” Privately, they sparred over everything from constitutional revision to religious freedom.
Yet both sides needed each other too much to walk away.
